Once we share a common understanding of the challenges we currently face, it is time to look ahead.

In a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) future, it seems like risk lies behind every decision we make. How do we navigate this landscape? How can we move from where we are now to a better place we want to be in, while minimizing risks? This is where future studies and foresight methods can help us.

In order to navigate forwards, we need to be able to imagine new futures, prepare ourselves for the uncertainty and volatility by exploring different scenarios, and decide collectively where to place anchors in the future so we can move towards it. In other words, by envisioning new futures, we can outline a shared direction for an ecosystem of stakeholders to work towards, and backcast from there the actions we might need to take in order to get there.

This is a co-creative process, where we connect the knowledge of experts with the everyday experience of people working in organisations. We explore futures together, weigh in the effects of pursuing different paths and discuss different strategies to execute on.‍

Multiple frameworks, multiple ways forward

There is no shortage of methods and tools for working with futures and foresight. Some tools allow us to predict in the short-term, but fall apart when looking too far ahead. Others, allow us to expand the scope of what is possible or plausible, but have low accuracy in terms of prediction. It is important to use all the tools available to anticipate, prepare and act.

There are also multiple frameworks that we can use in this process. A popular one is the "Three Horizons model", made popular in the business world by Bill Sharpe. In this model, we outline 3 different horizons for a transformation as curves on a graph: H1 is Business as usual; H2 is Disruptive innovation; and H3 is a transformative future we want to pursue. We can use this model to create a shared understanding of trends and pockets of change we can already identify, as well as the innovation we still need to pursue.

Other relevant frameworks are Geels and Schot’s “Multilevel Perspective”, which presents a dominant paradigm and the outliers and niche innovators which are attempting to break through, and Stuart Brand’s "Pace Layers model", that posits that different aspects of reality – such as nature, economy, politics & culture – allow for change to happen in different speeds.

Tools such as explorative or normative scenarios allow us to distinguish between what is possible, what is desirable and what we should avoid at all costs. Visions are powerful tools to create alignment, to set ambitious goals and to communicate with others. 

Regardless of methods and tools, it is important to recognize that multiple versions of the future exist at the same time, and that our imagination, ambitions and actions can influence how the future develops. This is what creates a shared direction for making transformations happen.